Q1 2025 Recap: Freight Isn’t Frozen — It’s Gearing Up

After a long winter, the market is starting to thaw. Here’s what Q1 revealed — and why Q2 might bring brighter skies.

Three months into 2025, the freight industry has officially put the chaos of the past few years behind it — and while we’re not sprinting yet, there’s no doubt: we’re moving in the right direction.

Q1 wasn’t flashy, but it was foundational.

We saw resilience. We saw discipline. And now, we’re starting to see signs of real recovery.

Spot Rates Are Stabilizing, Finally

The bleeding seems to have stopped.

•Dry van spot rates hovered between $1.98–$2.03 per mile, ending March with three straight weeks of rate consistency.

•Reefer rates held in the $2.30s, buoyed by early produce activity and stable consumer demand.

•Flatbed saw a slight seasonal uptick, trending toward $2.50 per mile — a welcome shift after months of stagnation.

For the first time in a year, rates aren’t falling — they’re holding, and in some lanes, even climbing.

Carrier Exodus Slows as Confidence Rises

The mass exits of 2023–2024 have finally cooled off. FMCSA data showed that net carrier losses slowed by 30% in Q1 compared to Q4 2024.

What does this mean?

The weakest fleets have exited.
Those remaining have either optimized or diversified.
Many carriers are now running leaner and smarter, with a renewed focus on profitability over volume.

We’re also seeing more power-only partnerships and multi-modal integrations as carriers get creative to protect margin and improve fleet utilization.

Brokers: From Damage Control to Strategic Positioning

Let’s be honest — the past six quarters have been tough on the brokerage world.

Margins were crushed. Volumes were unpredictable. And customer loyalty vanished as shippers chased bottom-barrel pricing.

But in Q1 2025, something shifted:

Routing guides stabilized.
Shippers came back to trusted partners.
Margin compression eased — slightly.

Brokers who invested in tech, process, and people during the downturn are now seeing the payoff. The name of the game in Q2? Efficiency, value-add, and relationships.

Tariff Tensions: A Double-Edged Sword

One of Q1’s biggest headlines came from D.C.: the White House’s intent to implement new tariffs on Chinese goods — particularly steel, electronics, and EVs.

While the long-term economic impact is still unfolding, the immediate effect has been familiar:

Front-loading of shipments to beat potential tariff deadlines
Increased container volumes through key West Coast ports
A modest but noticeable bump in drayage and transload activity

If tariffs take effect in Q2 as expected, we could see a ripple effect of urgent inbound shipping, inventory stockpiling, and OTR demand spikes — especially across retail and manufacturing sectors.

So while tariffs can disrupt long-term planning, they may just give the freight market the jolt it needs this spring.

Inventory Is Finally in Sync With Demand

The bullwhip effect is finally unwinding. Retailers spent much of 2023 burning off bloated inventories, but by the end of Q1 2025, inventory-to-sales ratios are finally back to pre-pandemic levels.

This is big for freight.

When inventory levels are right, companies return to predictable replenishment cycles — the bread and butter of trucking.

We’re already seeing signs:

Consistent freight volumes to regional DCs
Better lane predictability
More committed freight contracts

This kind of steady, reliable volume sets the stage for sustainable rate recovery in Q2 and beyond.

Produce Season: Off to a Quiet Start, But It’s Coming

Q1 saw a slow but steady start to produce season, especially in Florida and Southern California. Wet weather and crop delays held things back a bit, but forecasts for April and May suggest a strong ramp-up.

Reefer demand is already pulling capacity from dry van lanes, tightening supply and setting up rate pressure in key markets.

If volume builds as expected, produce season could be the catalyst that breaks the market’s plateau.

Looking Ahead: Cautious Optimism for Q2

Here’s where we stand after Q1:

•Rates are holding.

•Carrier capacity is tightening.

•Tariff-driven volume could fuel short-term demand.

•Inventory cycles and seasonal trends are aligning.

It’s not a freight surge — yet. But the pieces are falling into place. The cautious optimism that started in January has now turned into measured confidence.

Shippers are planning smarter.

Brokers are building leaner.

Carriers are holding strong.

Everyone’s playing for the long game now — and it’s starting to pay off.

Bottom Line: The Gears Are Turning

If Q1 2025 proved anything, it’s this: The freight industry is done shrinking. Now it’s rebuilding.

And while we may not be back to the highs of 2021 anytime soon, we’re no longer searching for the bottom. We’ve found it. We’ve stood on it. And now, we’re climbing out — mile by mile.

If you stayed in the fight this long, your moment is coming. Get ready for a better Q2!