Every week, analysts talk about the “load-to-truck ratio” as if everyone in logistics speaks the same language. But for most shippers, this number feels abstract—something brokers mention to justify rate changes or capacity shortages.
In reality, the load-to-truck ratio is one of the best indicators of what’s happening in the freight market. Understanding it can help you anticipate rate changes, secure capacity, and plan budgets with more confidence.
Here’s how it works—and what it really means for your business.
What Is the Load-to-Truck Ratio?
At its simplest, the load-to-truck ratio (LTR) measures how many available loads there are for every available truck on the market.
It’s calculated by dividing the total number of posted loads by the total number of posted trucks in a specific lane, mode, or region.
For example:
If there are 10 available loads and 5 available trucks, the ratio is 2:1—two loads for every truck.
- A higher ratio means demand exceeds supply—there are more loads than trucks.
- A lower ratio means capacity is abundant—more trucks than freight.
That simple math reflects the market’s heartbeat.
What High Ratios Really Mean
A high load-to-truck ratio signals a “tight” market.
Capacity is limited, trucks are in demand, and rates usually rise.
You’ll see higher ratios when:
- Seasonal surges hit (e.g., produce, retail, holidays)
- Weather events or road checks disrupt supply
- Manufacturing or construction volumes spike
- Drivers leave the market or shift to exclusive contract fleets
When the ratio climbs, expect spot rates to follow—and contract rates to feel pressure soon after.
What Low Ratios Tell You
A low ratio points to a “loose” market where supply exceeds demand.
That means:
- Shippers have more leverage
- Carriers compete harder on price
- Transit flexibility increases
But low ratios also create risk. If carriers pull back too far, the market can tighten suddenly once demand returns.
The best-performing shippers plan during soft markets—locking in fair contracts and building carrier loyalty while capacity is available.
The Relationship Between LTR and Rates
Load-to-truck ratios closely mirror spot rate movements.
When the ratio rises, rates climb soon after.
When the ratio drops, rates typically decline.
However, timing matters. Market shifts don’t happen overnight.
Spot rates react quickly, while contract rates lag by weeks or months.
For example:
- A spike in LTR today might affect your spot shipments immediately.
- But your negotiated contract rates might hold steady until renewal season.
That’s why tracking this data helps you forecast—not just react.
Why Mode and Region Matter
Not all ratios are created equal.
Each mode and region behaves differently:
- Van ratios reflect general freight and consumer demand.
- Reefer ratios rise and fall with produce and perishables.
- Flatbed ratios follow construction, oil, and manufacturing cycles.
And regionally, a tight market in Texas might not look the same as one in Ontario or California.
Tracking regional ratios gives you a more accurate picture of capacity—especially for cross-border or seasonal networks.
How Shippers Can Use This Data
Understanding load-to-truck ratios helps you:
- Forecast rates more accurately
- Time your bids and renewals strategically
- Plan inventory and production around market conditions
- Communicate proactively with leadership and customers about potential impacts
Many companies rely on partners like Journey Freight to interpret these metrics and turn them into strategy—not just spreadsheets.
The Big Picture: Control Through Awareness
The load-to-truck ratio doesn’t tell you everything, but it gives you context.
It explains why rates shift, why carriers get selective, and why communication matters more when capacity tightens.
At Journey, we monitor these indicators daily to help our customers make informed, confident decisions—balancing cost, service, and reliability across every market cycle.
When you understand the ratio, you don’t just react to the freight market—you read it.
